From Disillusioned to Brain-dead
An editorial in the Honolulu Advertiser explains the bizarre twist of fate on the islands that now shows Bush leading Kerry after all the political experts and previous polls had called a sure victory for the Democrat. Either the poll is misleading and scientifically flawed, or Bush's campaign has served up some mind-altering kool-aid to the masses. Here's an excerpt from the editorial:
"What is interesting about the Hawai'i poll results reported yesterday is that a substantial number of voters appear determined not to change horses in midstream despite strong negative feelings about such things as the war in Iraq and their own personal economic security. ... Think about it: A majority of those surveyed said they believe they were misled about the rationale for the war in Iraq. A strong majority believe we are less safe than we were before we invaded. A substantial majority believe the troops won't be brought home on schedule. ... And they are evenly split about whether Social Security will be there for them when they retire. More than half of the respondents said they were Democrats. ...Yet after all that, they were just as likely to say they'll vote for Bush as for Kerry. The power of incumbency!"
Not to disappoint Kerry's New Mexico supporters, but I wouldn't be surprised if Sanderoff's poll in the Journal on Sunday puts the race at a dead heat based on the same faulty reasoning. (UPDATE—I just received an email from the publisher at the Honolulu Weekly who was for the most part incredulous to Bush's sudden surge. “Well, that's what the polls say but our polls are notorious for misleading results,” she writes. “People tend not to be honest with poll takers here—its a well known phenomenon.”)