Call him Cassandra! Sanderoff's Sunday Journal poll set to call the election
One thing that is clear this year in Bernalillo County—the Democrats got their act together during the early and absentee voting period. What will that mean on Nov. 2. Who knows? But if the Dems work as hard at getting folks to the polls on Tuesday as they did getting folks to vote early, Wilson could be toast. And if she is, it will be the young voters that had a strong hand in it. No wonder she's comparing herself to none other than Nancy Pelosi in the final weeks of the campaign. You can take that as a sign of desperation, insanity or just downright shamelessness. Either way, expect the ground game to get ugly. I'm betting it's too close to call, and one side or the other will, quite likely, file a lawsuit before the final result is confirmed.
Meanwhile, Brian Sanderoff and his staff are pounding the phones to get the final accurate poll numbers heading into the homestretch. Sanderoff's poll will continue through Friday night, surveying 1,200 people, before it winds up on the front page of the Sunday Journal. Forget all the other polls, this one will call the election ... unless it's a dead heat.
This morning Sanderoff told the Alibi that early and absentee voters—once a Republican strong point—are definitely looking like a Democratic strength this year. Remember, Heather Wilson won by nearly 30 points in early and absentee balloting two years ago, but lost on election day, by 53-47 margin. Sanderoff said the challenge in polling this year will be to determine if the Democrats voting early are new voters or traditional voters. If they are new voters, then the traditional voters will show up on Election Day and that bodes very well for Romero.
Sanderoff also said folks will very likely need to brace themselves for a long night before the final results are in. He said exit polling on Election Day will not give an accurate indication of the overall result. So if your station of choice is talking about early exit poll data, you might as well click through to Channel 7 and wait for Sanderoff to make an informed call.