Mayoral race—Alibi endorsement issue

Here comes the Monday morning caffeine-induced prognostication from yours truly that should always be taken cum grano salis (that means with caution or incredulity for those still working on their UNM degree—just kidding).

First off, there's going to be a runoff in the mayor's race. Marty's ABQPAC days apparently served him well, since Terri Baird, his former chief of staff and ABQPAC fundraiser, aka., the mistress of corruption, has brought home the bacon ($1 million and counting) for his campaign. But guess what? All that dough isn't gonna buy him a victory on Oct. 4. If Chavez gets elected it will be in a run-off.

Of course, Griego and Winter need to get their acts together—especially Winter whose campaign website still doesn't have his platform talking points posted, which is both inexcusable and frustrating. Nonetheless, Marty's poll numbers were at 40 percent several weeks ago after his campaign was in full gear spending hundreds of thousands of dollars and his challengers were off in Siestaland somewhere. In other words, Marty's poll numbers have nowhere to go but down.

Griego has a better ground game than people think and his numbers will go up. Brad is the accidental politician who has a knack for doing well at the polls just for showing up, as they say. Most importantly—and I expect this will happen—if Griego and Winter can get a little wind under their wings they will help each other out by drawing in a chunk of those 30 percent of undecided voters; each will pull some votes from Marty at the same time as well. Of course, Winter needs to get his platform issues out there to the public, including his ethics reform plan, which is clear, concise and sensible, especially when he is aiming to unseat Mr. ABQPAC. So again, Earth to Brad's campaign, Earth to Brad's campaign, get your act together, starting with your website!

Griego should put his tireless energy and sharp intellect where it will do the most good, and that means getting out in the community as much as possible. The more people actually meet him the less he needs to worry about the negative coverage he is guaranteed to get in the Journal. (That hatchet job veiled as a "profile" was so transparently biased even the average Journal reader could've seen through it.) The more he does that the more his numbers rise. Same for Winter.

Meanwhile Marty's claim in the Journal over the weekend that he'll need to spend some of his loot hitting back at the other candidates' negative attacks is laughable. He can spend all his money attacking Eric Griego, but his ABQPAC scandal is indefensible. And if he does spend all that money attacking Griego, hello Mayor Winter. Besides, negative attacks coming from an ethically challenged mayor could be a very touchy issue with the voters and a strategy with potential to backfire.

So my first point is, it ain't over till it's over. My second point is, my opinion don't cost you nothing and that's what it's worth.

Lastly, the Alibi's endorsement issue will be out on Wednesday. It will be a mostly comprehensive look at the Council candidates and a concise explanation of how we made our choices. As always, you will know where we stand and why, and you will know who we are. We hope you're amused, informed and stirred to do your civic duty and go to the polls after you read it. Check back here for updates.